Shiny Trinket

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -30 bps last week. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Inflation and 3) Central Banks.

1) Geopolitical: We come back from a long-holiday weekend with plenty to absorb. Canada versus US Trade War has moved another notch higher, Iran and Oman say they have an agreement to control the Straight of Hormuz, Iran has attacked Saudi energy sites and the IDF has hit Hezbollah sites. As a result, oil prices across the board are being pressured higher.

2) Inflation: We will get both PPI and CPI this week with the main focus on Friday's CPI report. A higher than expected report will pressure markets.

3) Central Banks: The European Central Bank is expected to be the first of the major banks to raise interest rates in order to address inflation pressed higher by oil.

Treasury Auction: This week's 30 year Treasury Bond auction will be the most important:

09/08 3 year note.

09/09 10 year note.

09/10 30 year bond.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are steady trading despite the weekend events. Volatility at moderate to low levels but as always is likely to spike higher later in the week.

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

In the real estate industry since 1985, Julie DeMarcus started her career with a local title company, worked her way to a Certified Escrow Officer and then switched gears in 1993 to mortgage lending. Julie helps her clients make sense of the often confusing world of lending. Working closely with her clients, Julie strives to produce a smooth, stress-free transaction. Thanks to her attention to detail and superb customer service, her client base has increased exponentially over the years. Her dedication to her clients continues to be a hallmark of her business. A local resident of the Santa Ynez Valley since 1991, Julie has been married to Andy since 1988 and has two grown children, Zach and Nicole.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Company Licenses: CA Bur of Real Estate-Real Estate Broker # 01308080 NMLS # 240525 Loan Officer Licenses: CA Bur of Real Estate-Real Estate Broker #01175903 NMLS #273328